Conventional wisdom has long dictated that 4 percent is the most sustainable withdrawal rate from a retirement portfolio, one that enables the investor to not exhaust his savings. However, in recent years, some experts have questioned that long-held benchmark.
Those in the 4 percent camp can take heart: A recent research paper from registered investment advisor Gerstein Fisher upholds the 4 percent rule, albeit with some caveats.
The Gerstein Fisher paper, “Investment Strategy: What’s a Sustainable Portfolio Withdrawal Rate?,” analyzes a hypothetical portfolio divided into 50 percent domestic stocks (as represented by the S&P 500), 40 percent intermediate-term U.S. bonds and 10 percent cash reserves. In this scenario, the investor retires with $1 million in his portfolio, which is expected to support living expenses for 35 years, in combination with other sources of income, such as Social Security, pensions and annuities.
The investor takes monthly withdrawals from the initial portfolio, adjusted for the actual rate of inflation. Six time periods were highlighted (1973-2007, 1974-2008, 1975-2009, 1976-2010, 1977-2011 and 1978-2012), with the withdrawal rates ranging from 4 percent and 8 percent. Taxes were not considered in the analysis, since the portfolio was assumed to be a tax-free retirement account.
After testing each withdrawal rate for all six periods, the Gerstein Fisher researchers concluded that the 4 percent rate was the only one that didn’t deplete the portfolio during that 35-year time span.