10 Key Issues to Watch in China’s Future

“China began to move under the radar in 1978, and over the last 10 years its economic power has really been felt,” Tiffany said. “Emerging markets like this are the markets of the future and have begun to dominate, while developed countries are stagnant.”

He then noted that Spain dominated in the 16^th century, Holland in the 17^th century, France in the 18^th century, Great Britain in the 19^th century and the United States in the 20^th century.

“Who will be the dominant power in the 21^st century?” he rhetorically asked before naming several possibilities including China, the rest of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia and India) and even Turkey, Indonesia and Vietnam. “In fact the game might be over already, as China’s share of the world’s GDP will reach that of the United States by 2016.”

After sharing a brief history of the People’s Republic of China, beginning with Mao (a revolutionary) to Deng Xiaoping (a statesman) to Jiang Zemin (a modernizer), Tiffany noted the aforementioned problems he believes will hamper China’s growth, including:

• 4-2-1—Most Chinese families have four grandparents, two parents and one child. With the “one child” policy still in place, the demographic burden is increasingly a concern
• A possible bubble in the banking and financial sectors
• Questions over the country’s long-term energy supply
• Corruption throughout the government that is leading to civil unrest
• Taiwan and its future, as well as historical friction with Japan

“We have to ask ourselves if China is already in a secular decline,” he added. “GDP growth from 1995 to 2010 averaged 9.9%. By 2026 through 2030, it will have declined to an average of 5%.”

He then listed his top 10 key issues to watch for in China’s future. They are:

1. The level of political participation by the general population, as well as transparency in government
2. The social unrest in rural regions due to the growing inequality that’s resulting in “two Chinas”
3. Trade tensions with the USA, EU and other nations
4. Revaluation of the Chinese currency (over 20% since 2005)
5. The boosting of internal consumption
6. The level of infrastructure development
7. Relations with its Asian neighbors
8. Establishment of a value system beyond wealth
9. Cultural issues that include more freedom of expression and individualism
10. Aging of the population, along with gender and health issues

“So where is China going?” he asked in conclusion. “Sure, it could have a hard landing or a soft landing, but it might just have no landing and be able to continually refuel in midair.”