Swiss Re: Current Approaches Inadequate for Assessing Future Longevity

The substantial increases in life expectancy witnessed in recent decades have been consistently underestimated, according to a new report.

Published by Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd., Zurich, Switzerland, the report is titled “A window into the future: Understanding and predicting longevity.” The report concludes that managing longevity risk requires the development of “robust” and “forward-looking scenarios” based on social factors, medical treatments and preventative approaches that influence disease.

“The failure to consider future drivers of mortality in historical predictions contributed to employer pension funds under-reserving for longevity risk and other bodies, including governments, not budgeting effectively for funding an ageing population,” says Daniel Ryan, head of life and health research and development at Swiss Re.

The report presents the building blocks of a disease-centered model and calls on experts from multi-disciplinary backgrounds, including medical experts, actuaries and demographers, to work together towards a greater understanding of future developments in human longevity.