Researchers using “optimistic models” have predicted that an avian influenza pandemic could cause $15 billion to $20 billion in U.S. insured losses.[@@]
That’s the consensus of analysts at Standard and Poor’s, New York.
In a report, S&P analysts say overall worldwide losses of $71 billion to $200 billion could result, with the heaviest impact being on big cities with large transit systems.
The $15 billion to $20 billion figure, based on U.S. Center for Disease Control data, reflects medical advances and containment efforts of the type that restricted Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003, S&P says.
If the virus spreads from birds to humans and causes a pandemic, it would cause losses in nearly all insurance sectors: Health, commercial insurance, life, life and property reinsurance and retrocession, S&P analysts say.