The State Administration of Foreign Exchange is China's currency watchdog. The acronym is perfect: SAFE by name and it would seem by nature as well, zealously scrutinizing any transactions that could erode state control of the renminbi and undermine China's export-led economic boom. The problem for SAFE is that things are not so safe at the present.
The dollar continues to move south and economic forces have prevented the renminbi from following: In June 2006, one dollar would buy just over eight renminbi.
Today, it buys just over seven. Only intervention by Chinese regulators has kept the rate of currency appreciation manageable, but a treasury executive with one U.K. corporate that has built a large business in China argues that an inflexion point is coming: "If you look at what China is doing onshore, they are artificially holding down the renminbi in order to protect exports. That's a situation that just can't last." And if it can't last, Chinese authorities will have to give local companies more freedom to manage their own cash and risks.
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