The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 will be a 2.7% increase in benefits, 0.1 percentage points higher than anticipated last month, The Senior Citizens League predicted Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3% in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the past 12 months, the all-items index jumped 2.7% before a seasonal adjustment.
The actual 2026 COLA won’t be known until October, when the Social Security Administration will use the average rate of inflation during the third quarter to measure how prices have changed from the third quarter of 2024.
At this point, the 2026 COLA is projected to be higher than the 2.5% increase enjoyed by beneficiaries this year.
This rate is down significantly from recent years. High inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic leading to higher-than-average COLAs of 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023. In 2021, seniors received only a 1.3% benefit boost.
Regardless of the final rate for next year, The Senior Citizens League (or TSCL) warns, the 2026 COLA will arrive as many seniors face challenges accessing basic amenities.
“With the COLA announcement around the corner, seniors across America are holding their breath,” said The Senior Citizens League Executive Director Shannon Benton in a statement.
“While a higher COLA would be welcome because their monthly benefits will increase, many will be disappointed. TSCL’s research shows that many seniors believe the COLA does not adequately capture the inflation they experience,” Benton added.
July Inflation Highlights
The index for shelter rose 0.2% in July and was the primary factor in July's overall monthly increase.
The food index was unchanged over the month as the index for food consumed away from home rose 0.3%, and the food consumed at home index fell 0.1%. In contrast, the index for energy decreased 1.1% in July, as the index for gasoline dropped 2.2% over the month.
The index for all items excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include those for health care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks.
The indexes for lodging away from home and communications were among the few major indexes that declined in July. The all-items index rose 2.7% for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7% over the 12 months ending June.
The all-items index excluding food and energy rose 3.1% over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 1.6%, while the food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.
Credit: DavidPalmer/ALM
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