Page 10 - Investment Advisor March 2022

Beginnings

WASHINGTON WATCH

By Melanie Waddell

Greg Valliere’s Top 6 Economic, Political

Predictions for 2022 and Beyond

Here’s what AGF Investments’ chief U.S. strategist expects for inflation,
tax hikes and Biden’s future priorities.

At FSI OneVoice, Valliere discussed
the likelihood of that bill’s passage —
he referred to Build Back Better as a
stimulus bill — as well as what lies
ahead in terms of inflation and wheth-
er Republicans will regain control of
Congress. Here are some key points:

1. INFLATION WILL PERSIST.
Inflation is a “really big deal for most
Americans” and is going to hurt Biden
“the most,” Valliere said. “I would argue
there are two types of inflation, things
like oil, grain, lumber, these things that
can go up or down. … These things can
ith Congress back in ses- All the while, Biden’s approval rating be transitory.”
sion in early February, Greg has taken “one of the quickest plummets The real problem: labor. “That to me
W Valliere, chief U.S. strate- I’ve ever seen,” from 60% to less than is the story that has propelled inflation,”
gist of AGF Investments, says law- 40% in eight months, Valliere said at the Valliere said. “This labor inflation is
makers face a “very full plate” — an Financial Services Institute’s OneVoice going to be here for a while; you see in
expiring budget, a possible resurrec- conference in late January. He cited contracts now everybody wants a cost
tion of President Joe Biden’s Build Back the president’s handling of Afghanistan, of living adjustment, and you’re going to
Better spending and tax bill, a China illegal immigration and “growing signs see that trend persist.”
competition bill, a Russia sanctions of crime out of control,” along with the How can Washington fix the labor
measure and a fight this spring over a Centers for Disease Control’s inconsis- shortage? “We need more immigrants,”
Supreme Court nominee. tent messaging on the COVID-19 pan- Valliere argued.
“Congress will have to keep the gov- demic, for the steep drop.
ernment funded past the Feb. 18 dead- The big legislative story by spring, 2. POWELL AND CONGRESS WILL
line that was set before Christmas when he wrote in his Capitol Notes, “may be GET THE BLAME.
lawmakers kicked the can down the a resurrection of the Build Back Better To be fair, Valliere said, “we were Adobe Stock; Bloomberg
road on an omnibus spending package bill, as Democrats indicate they will unwinding the worst pandemic of the
for this fiscal year,” Valliere wrote in his accept virtually anything from Sen. century … Some of this [inflation] could
Capitol Notes email briefing. Joe Manchin.” not be predicted.

8 INVESTMENT ADVISOR MARCH 2022 | ThinkAdvisor.com