As the year’s fourth quarter gets underway, Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CEO and chief investment officer, says it’s too soon or too close to call whether half of his 10 predictions for 2025 were on the mark.
Just three of Doll’s predictions appear to be headed in the right direction, while two are headed in the wrong direction in terms of panning out, he reported in his quarterly investment commentary Monday.
The portfolio manager noted that stocks gained again in the third quarter, hitting multiple record highs across major indexes.
“The biggest theme during the quarter was the shift in the Fed rate-cut forecast to the emergence of more dovish voices and broadening expectations for more cuts, even as inflation remained well above the Fed’s 2% target,” he wrote.
Doll noted the third quarter ended with a U.S. government shutdown, now in its 13th day.
As for stocks, Doll said, “It is always easier when markets are going up. Indeed, it is difficult to poke holes in the bull case; the path of least resistance is likely higher, but we find ourselves increasingly worried that traditional risk assets (stocks and bonds) appear priced for perfection.
“Prevailing equity valuations are in the top decile of their historical range and corporate credit spreads are the best in a generation. Perhaps an air of complacency has crept into investors’ outlook. It is time to remain vigilant. Policy uncertainty has arguably been reduced on tax and tariff clarity but the implementation considerations are still working through the system,” he added.
Check out the gallery for Doll’s fourth-quarter report card on his 10 predictions for 2025.
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