The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 will be a 2.5% increase in benefits, 0.1 percentage points higher than anticipated last month, the Senior Citizens League predicted Wednesday.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2% in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment.
The actual 2026 COLA won’t be known until October, when the Social Security Administration will use the average rate of inflation during the third quarter to measure how prices have changed from the third quarter of 2024.
At this point, the 2026 COLA is projected to be the same as the 2.5% increase enjoyed by beneficiaries this year. The rate is down significantly from recent years, however, with high inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic leading to higher-than-average COLAs of 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023. In 2021, seniors received only a 1.3% benefit boost.
“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League. “Our research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.”
May Inflation Highlights
The index for shelter rose 0.3% in May and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.3% as both of its major components, the index for food at home and the index for food away from home, also rose 0.3% in May.
In contrast, the energy index declined 1% during the month as the gasoline index fell. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April.
Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, personal care and education. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in May.
Credit: David Palmer/ALM
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