The Republican legislative balancing act now shifts to the Senate.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said this week House Republicans would like to see as few changes possible to the sweeping tax and spending package (H.R. 1) the House passed by a single vote this morning.
But he was quick to add that the Senate will have its say as it aims to get the massive reconciliation package a step closer to becoming law.
“The Senate will have its imprint on it,” said Thune.
Indeed, GOP senators have their own demands, and the package will have to survive the chamber’s complex rules — a historically time-consuming process.
Thune told reporters Thursday after the bill passed the House that he spoke with a “happy” Trump who conveyed to him that he’s ready to work with the Senate.
GOP senators are now weighing possible policy changes to the measure, Thune said; there are questions over tax permanence and members are in a “very active discussion” over Medicaid.
Byrd Rule Issues
The reconciliation process allows tax and spending legislation to pass with a simple majority, but the bill still needs to survive the Byrd Rule — named after the late Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., known for his mastery of parliamentary procedure. It prevents lawmakers from tucking non-budgetary provisions into the legislation.
“The committees are working closely to try and identify potential Byrd problems ahead of time,” Thune said.
The Senate parliamentarian makes calls on challenges against provisions in the bill and whether they survive the “Byrd Bath.” Democrats plan to aggressively use the rule to challenge items they believe don’t satisfy the Byrd standard.
Once the package makes it to the floor, senators will be prepared for a marathon vote-a-rama on amendments.
GOP senators hope the advance work will help keep the measure moving, but a look at the history of the chamber’s experience with big bills shows it will likely be a lengthy process.
For the reconciliation bills enacted since 1980, the time between adoption of a budget resolution and enactment of the reconciliation bill ranges from 28 to 385 days, with a 152-day average, according to the Congressional Research Service.
The Senate passed the Democrats’ 2022 sweeping reconciliation legislation with changes roughly nine months after the House passed it.
Independence Day Target
“It will take longer than expected just because it is arduous and it’s designed to be that way,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said. “It would be great to get it out before the Fourth of July break.”
Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said the Senate Finance Committee has been meeting since last summer and “have some ideas that may or may not be in the House bill.”
Barrasso said he’ll work with every member of his conference, calling Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance persuasive members of the whip team as well.
Congress didn’t clear Republicans’ 2017 tax overhaul until December of that year, Barrasso said, but this bill faces a tighter deadline because it includes a debt ceiling hike. The borrowing limit could hit as soon as August.
Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that they need to move by late July at least, but he made no guarantees on when the Senate would act.
“I’m going to try to get this done as soon as I can, but I’m not going to tell you when that’s going to be,” Crapo said.
Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., said the message to Senate Republicans right now is to work with committees of jurisdiction.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said he expects there to be “considerable changes” to the bill in the Senate, pointing to how there were changes after the House passed the tax overhaul in 2017. “I hope and believe we’ll do the same thing here,” he said.
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said he wants to ensure there aren’t Medicaid benefit cuts, and he’s looking to increase the child tax credit. Hawley said he spoke with Trump last night who told him that if the Senate is going to make changes, they should close the carried interest tax loophole.
Thune originally proposed moving the measure in two parts, but Trump wants his agenda rolled into a single package, which the House dubbed “The One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is still advocating for the previous approach.
“We are so far away from an acceptable bill, it’s hard to say,” Johnson said, when asked when the Senate could get it done. “I think we could move very quickly if we split it into two.”
Next Steps
If the Senate amends the reconciliation legislation, the House would need to vote on the amended legislation or they would need to be reconciled in a conference committee.
That’s likely to lead to more challenges, given the tight margins in the House.
Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, one of the most vocal conservative hardliners who ended up supporting the bill, acknowledged Senate changes are coming and suggested tough negotiations lie ahead between the chambers.
“We’ll give them some flexibility, they gotta work their will, but somewhere between us and the Senate and the White House, there’s gonna be some red lines and those will be public pretty soon,” Roy said.
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