The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 will be a 2.4% increase in benefits, 0.1 percentage points higher than anticipated last month, The Senior Citizens League predicted Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1% in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.3% before seasonal adjustment.
The actual 2026 COLA won’t be known until October, when the Social Security Administration will use the average rate of inflation during the third quarter to measure how prices have changed from the third quarter of 2024.
At this point, the 2026 COLA is projected to be the lowest since 2021, when seniors received a 1.3% benefit boost. High inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic led to higher-than-average COLAs of 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023. The COLA for 2025 was 2.5%.
“If our predictions come true and the 2026 COLA comes in at the lowest we’ve seen since 2021, seniors will face additional pressure at a time when they’re already strained financially,” warned Shannon Benton, TSCL executive director, in a statement. “Our research shows that 73% of American seniors rely on Social Security for at least half their income, with 39% depending on the program for all of their income.”
April Inflation Highlights
The index for shelter rose 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the all-items monthly increase. The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7% as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index.
The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1% in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4% and the food away from home index rose 0.4% over the month. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% during the month, following a 0.1% increase in March.
Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in April.
The all items index rose 2.3% for the 12 months ending April, after rising 2.4% over the 12 months ending March. The April change was the smallest 12-month increase in the all items index since February 2021.
Credit: David Palmer/ALM
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