Several key economic developments point to a likely recession, but such a downturn hasn’t happened yet despite historical trends, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said in a webcast Tuesday.
Most components of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index are negative, he noted, citing only stock prices and the leading credit index as positive contributors and manufacturers’ new orders “slightly positive.”
“If we look back and try to remember historically how these things have worked … this type of dynamic has been highly coincident and predictive of recession — once the LEI gets into this kind of negative level of this magnitude and then starts reverting higher. But this time no official recession has happened.”
The unemployment rate has surpassed its 36-month moving average — another recession indicator, noted Gundlach, the firm’s founder and chief investment officer.
“Boy, it sure has been the gateway to a recession. That hasn't happened yet. So we're in a different world than we remember,” he said.
Check out the gallery for eight market and economic predictions for the rest of 2024 and beyond that the billionaire investor made on his webcast.
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