For decades, investors have been taught to focus on long-term averages. Over time, markets go up. Diversification works. Staying invested matters.
While those principles are broadly true, they can obscure a more pressing reality for retirees and those approaching retirement: The real risk is not average returns — it is volatility combined with withdrawals.
Once clients begin taking income from their portfolios, the order in which returns occur becomes critically important. Market losses early in retirement can create lasting damage that even strong long-term returns may not fully repair. This dynamic, commonly referred to as sequence of returns risk, is one of the most underestimated threats in retirement planning.
The market turbulence seen in 2026 has served as a reminder that even in otherwise strong markets, volatility can arrive quickly. For retirees who rely on market-based portfolios for income, those periods can create both financial strain and emotional stress.
For advisors, the objective is not simply maximizing returns. And while they cannot control market volatility, through thoughtful planning and disciplined portfolio structure they can help ensure that price swings do not control their clients' retirements.
Challenge Differs From Accumulation Investing
Market volatility affects investors differently depending on their life stage. For younger investors still accumulating assets, downturns are often temporary setbacks and can even present opportunities to buy at lower prices.
Retirees face a different challenge.
Once withdrawals begin, a portfolio experiencing losses must recover not only from market declines but also from the distributions taken during those declines. This combination can accelerate portfolio depletion and reduce the probability of long-term success.
Two portfolios with identical average returns over a 25-year period can produce dramatically different outcomes depending on when the losses occur. A sharp market downturn in the early years of retirement can significantly weaken a portfolio's ability to sustain long-term withdrawals.
This is why retirement planning requires a different mindset than accumulation investing. The issue is not simply how much a portfolio grows over time, but whether it can reliably support income throughout retirement.
Stress-Testing Retirement Plans for Volatility
One of the most valuable roles that advisors play is helping clients understand how their plans perform under unfavorable market conditions.
Many retirement projections rely on average return assumptions that may appear reassuring on paper but fail to account for real-world volatility. Advisors can add tremendous value by stress-testing retirement plans using more realistic scenarios.
These scenarios may include:
● Market downturns early in retirement
● Extended periods of modest or flat returns
● Higher-than-expected inflation
● Simultaneous withdrawals and declining asset values
Monte Carlo analysis and historical scenario testing can help advisors assess whether a retirement plan remains viable across a range of potential outcomes.
But beyond the analytics, advisors must also address a practical question: Where will the client's income come from if markets decline?
If the answer is "from selling equities," the plan may need further refinement.
Structuring Portfolios to Reduce Forced Selling
One effective way to manage volatility risk is to organize retirement portfolios by time horizon and purpose, rather than treating the portfolio as a single pool of assets.
This framework — often described as bucket planning — seeks to ensure that short-term spending needs are insulated from market volatility while allowing long-term assets to remain invested.
While the specific structure may vary, many retirement plans benefit from incorporating three distinct components.
● Liquidity for Near-Term Spending: The first component focuses on liquidity and stability. These assets are designed to cover several years of anticipated spending and may include cash equivalents, short-duration fixed income or other low-volatility holdings. The purpose of this segment is straightforward: to provide retirees with a dependable source of funds so they are not forced to sell long-term investments during market downturns.
● Dedicated Income Sources: The second component focuses on generating reliable income that is not entirely dependent on short-term market performance. This portion of the portfolio may include income-oriented investments or other strategies designed to produce predictable cash flow. By establishing dependable income streams, advisors can help reduce a retiree's reliance on selling growth assets during periods of market stress.
● Long-Term Growth Assets: The third component is designed for long-term growth and typically includes equities or other investments intended to outpace inflation over time. Because near-term income needs are addressed by the earlier segments, these assets can remain invested through market cycles without being prematurely liquidated during downturns. This structure allows different parts of the portfolio to serve different roles while helping mitigate the risks associated with volatility and withdrawals.
Behavioral Advantage of Income Planning
Beyond portfolio mechanics, structuring retirement plans around income stability also provides an important behavioral benefit.
Clients who understand that their income needs are secured for the foreseeable future are often far less likely to react emotionally during periods of market volatility.
The market swings seen earlier in 2026 illustrated this dynamic. Advisors whose clients had clearly defined income strategies were often able to reinforce long-term discipline during the turbulence. Clients without that structure frequently felt pressure to make reactive decisions based on short-term headlines.
In retirement planning, protecting clients from emotional decision-making can be just as important as protecting portfolios from market fluctuations.
Building Plans That Can Withstand Reality
Volatility is a permanent feature of financial markets. What advisors can do is design retirement plans that acknowledge it and prepare accordingly.
That means shifting the focus away from portfolios built solely for long-term return projections and toward plans that prioritize income stability, resilience and flexibility.
Retirement success ultimately depends not just on how much a portfolio grows, but on whether clients can maintain their lifestyle through both favorable and unfavorable market environments.
In that sense, volatility itself is not the real danger. The true risk is being forced to sell into it.
Michael Schessler is the founder of Sustainable Retirement Solutions, an independent retirement planning firm specializing in helping pre-retirees and retirees design income-focused retirement strategies that balance growth, protection and long-term sustainability.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.