Credit: ThinkAdvisor
The old year blew away, and the new year has arrived.
Financial professionals now have to try to wake clients from holiday hibernation.
Here's a collection of predictions, data and other resources for use in efforts to get clients moving.
1. Sector Snapshot
Analysts at LIMRA reported:
Individual annuity sales, first three quarters of 2025: $347 billion, up 4.4% from the total for the comparable period in 2024.
Individual life insurance sales, first three quarters of 2025: $12.7 billion, up 12% from the total for the comparable period in 2024.
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners reported:
Direct written premium and deposits, first three quarters of 2025: $1.1 trillion, up 6.5% from the total for the comparable period in 2024.
Direct written premium and deposits for annuities, first three quarters of 2025: $390 billion, down 2.6% from the total for the comparable period in 2024.
Direct written premiums and deposits for life insurance, first three quarters of 2025: $171 billion, up 4.6% from the total for the comparable period in 2024.
Net investment yield, first three quarters of 2025: 5.0%, up from 4.8% for the comparable period in 2024.
Net income, first three quarters of 2025: $29 billion, up 13% from the total for the comparable period in 2024.
2. Economic Backdrop
The International Monetary Fund predicted:
U.S. gross domestic product, or income, will be 2.1% in 2026, according to an NAIC Capital Markets Bureau report. GDP will increase from 2% in 2025 but fall from 2.8% in 2024.
World GDP will fall to 3.1% in 2026, from 3.2% in 2025 and from 3.3% in 2024.
The Congressional Budget Office predicted:
U.S. GDP will increase to 2.2% in 2026, from 1.4% in 2025.
Personal consumption expenditure inflation will fall to 2.4% in 2026, from 3.1% in 2025.
The U.S. unemployment rate will fall to 4.2% in 2026, from 4.5% in 2025.
The interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes will fall to 4.1% in 2026, from 4.3% in 2025.
Forecasters at KKR, the parent of Global Atlantic, predicted:
U.S. GDP will increase 2.3% in 2026.
U.S. inflation will be 3%.
The state of the U.S. economy will continue to be uneven, "with widening disparities across income groups as well as industries," according to KKR forecasters.
3. Consumers
Kevin Luebbers, national sales manager for Jackson's Jackson National Distributors, reported, in a commentary sent to ThinkAdvisor:
New survey data from the American Council of Life Insurers show that 41% of middle-income households would have to rely on debt to cover an unexpected $5,000 expense.
Figures like those show that consumers nearing or in retirement will need annuities designed to protect them against inflation and market risks, Luebbers said.
The KKR forecasters suggested that consumer financial stress could hurt the overall economy in 2026.
"Higher-income households and larger companies continue to perform strongly, while lower- and middle-income consumers and smaller businesses face greater pressure from years of higher costs and more constrictive interest rates," the KKR forecasters said.
"Although we maintain a constructive outlook, our optimism is tempered by recognition of evolving vulnerabilities," the KKR forecasters added. "Specifically, we expect that cracks in the labor market, including moderating wage growth and fading hiring momentum, particularly in the public sector, will weigh on consumption in 2026, especially among lower- and middle-income households."
4. Insurers' Investments
Analysts at Trepp, a firm that tracks commercial real estate, reported:
The U.S. market for multifamily housing has started to weaken.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic hurt U.S. office building occupancy rates, life insurance and annuity issuers have been worrying about investments in office buildings, office building mortgages and mortgage-backed securities tied to office buildings.
Investments in assets tied to multifamily housing — apartment buildings and condominium complexes — have been a haven from the problems with office building assets.
But, in the third quarter of 2025, the effects of a multifamily housing construction boom and sluggish growth in demand for housing started to hurt multifamily housing assets.
During the quarter, "the national multifamily vacancy rate climbed up to a record high of 7.2%," according to the Trepp analysts.
Apartment List reported:
Median multifamily unit rent fell to $1,367 in November 2025, down 1.1% from the median for November 2024.
The average time needed to rent out a unit increased to 36 days, from 34 days.
The NAIC Capital Markets Bureau reported:
U.S. insurers held $662 billion in commercial mortgage loan assets at the end of 2024. Here are the top five property types behind the mortgages:
Multifamily housing: 34.3%.
Industrial: 20.9%.
Office: 18.0%.
They have recently initiated coverage of the North American insurance sector.
They like life and annuity issuers better than providers of property and casualty insurance.
"We view the group as undervalued despite credit concerns, in the face of the interest environment and growth opportunities in retirement and group benefits," the Mizuho analysts said. "We believe the increase from ultra-low interest rates is not adequately reflected in life valuations, presenting upside."
Fitch Ratings reported:
Its rating analysts gave the North American life insurance sector a neutral outlook for 2026.
"Fitch Ratings expects strong capitalization, prudent asset-liability management and solid liquidity to persist in 2026, despite potential macroeconomic headwinds and growing concerns related to increased exposure to private credit," the firm's analysts said.
"Commercial real estate will remain under pressure, though it is abating," the analysts said. "Insurers' current expected credit loss reserves have increased meaningfully, reflecting the challenging dynamics. Commercial real estate losses are likely to increase in 2026 but should remain manageable relative to capital."
6. Technology Analysts' Views
Technology analysts at Celent reported:
They think life and annuity issuers face headwinds.
"The story of life insurance entering 2026 is one of a tenuous grip on financial stability coupled with the greatest tech promise of the century," the firm said in a life insurance tech trends report. "Conditions are dire, with economic and political upheaval scrambling markets and strategies… More of the baby boom generation worldwide are turning 65 every day, creating an imbalance on the books."
Majesco, an insurance technology provider, reported:
Its survey shows that reducing operational costs will be insurers' top strategic priority in 2026, and "expanding to new lines of business" and "entering new markets" will rank near the bottom.
Many investor-owned insurance technology firms are low on cash, and many founder-owned Insurtech firms lack the kinds of financial metrics that could help them get outside capital.
The result of the Insurtech capital famine is "a growing group of zombies who lack the financial fortitude to invest in business and technology, ultimately creating significant risk for insurers," Majesco warned.
Majesco said Insurtech companies need the resources to invest in artificial intelligence systems and in cloud-based systems.
7. Technology
Analysts at West Monroe Partners predicted:
Life and annuity issuers will have to use AI technology and other forms of technology to give retiring baby boomers more control over streams of income. "Customer expectations have fundamentally shifted from static, one-size-fits-all policies to dynamic ones that evolve with their lives," the firm said. "In 2026, competitive advantage will hinge on how fast insurers can make products feel alive."
Datos predicted life insurers will continue pilot projects that let autonomous AI systems make decisions about insurance underwriting and claims.
Celent predicted:
About 22% of insurers will have decision-making AI systems in production roles by the end of 2026.
8. Cybersecurity
The Identity Theft Resource Center predicted:
AI-powered efforts to analyze and manipulate people will lead to a surge in identity theft.
Law enforcement and support organizations will devote fewer resources to helping victims of identity theft.
Victims of identity theft will face more severe victim harm.
9. Insurance Organization Leaders
Here's a short list of some of the insurance organization leaders who help shape the news.
President: Tricia Matson.
President-elect: Frank Todisco.
Vice presidents: Nancy Behrens, Susan Kent, Annette James, Kirsten Pedersen, Bruce Cadenhead, Bill Jones.
Secretary-treasurer: Ben Slutsker.
Chair: Teresa Rasmussen.
Chair-elect: Andrew McMahon.
Chair-elect designate: Jasmine Jirele.
President and CEO: David Chavern.
Chair: Jim Rechtin.
President and CEO: Mike Tuffin.
Chair: Chip Van Dusen.
CEO: Marc Cadin.
Chair: Corey Walther.
Vice chair: Robert Jameison.
Treasurer and secretary: Terri Fiedler.
President and CEO: Wayne Chopus.
LL Global (LIMRA and LOMA)
Chair: Chris Blunt.
Vice chair: Wade Harrison.
President and CEO: David Levenson.
Chair: Neal Jacobs.
Vice chair: Rob Haynie.
Secretary-treasurer: Chris Conway.
President: John Nichols.
First vice president: Clay Gillespie.
Second vice president: Aurora Tancock.
Secretary: Simon Lister.
CEO: Stephen Stahr.
President: Susan Rider.
President-elect: Mychal Walker Sr.
Vice president: David Saltzman.
Treasurer and secretary: Keith Wallace.
CEO: Jessica Brooks-Woods.
President: Christopher Gandy.
President-elect: John Wheeler Jr.
Treasurer: Paul Dougherty.
Secretary: Carina Hatfield.
CEO: Kevin Mayeux.
President: Scott White.
President-elect: Elizabeth Kelleher-Dwyer.
Vice president: Jon Pike.
Secretary-treasurer: Michael Wise.
Interim CEO: Jeff Johnston.
President: Paul Utke.
Vice president: Edmond Jordan.
Treasurer: Jim Dunnigan.
Secretary: Brenda Carter.
CEO: Will Melofchik.
President and chair: Dave Dillon.
President-elect and vice chair: Ian Duncan.
CEO: Greg Heidrich.
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