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The second longest government shutdown in history reached day 23 Thursday and is now "becoming a crisis, not likely to be resolved until Nov. 1 — or later," according to Greg Valliere, chief U.S. strategist for AGF Investments.
"Politicians are considering a 'kick the can' [continuing resolution] fallback that would not resolve the budget impasse until January or later," Valliere said Thursday in his email newsletter, noting he predicted such a path on Wednesday.
"Both parties are at a total impasse, with little hope of an imminent deal," Valliere said Thursday. "Neither party wants this shutdown to interfere with the holidays. So gimmicks are very much alive, with some members of Congress pushing for lifting the shutdown until well into next year."
Both sides, Valliere said, "are dug in, unwilling to negotiate despite an overwhelming public desire to end this ridiculous self-inflicted shutdown."
Jeff Bush of The Washington Update agreed, stating that "the problem with the shutdown, as it currently stands, is that both sides believe they are winning. If you’re winning, why change your position?"
Both sides don’t fully realize "that more and more Americans see both sides as losers in this shutdown, which chips away at both parties' credibility," Bush said.
"The effects of the shutdown will become clearer by this weekend as more federal employees miss their paychecks," Bush added. "Eventually, those critical infrastructure workers (air traffic controllers, TSA employees, etc.) can make the shutdown painfully obvious to everyone. The question being asked is when that last proverbial straw will land on the camel’s back. I think we’re still a couple of weeks away."
Democrats voted Thursday to block passage of the Shutdown Fairness Act, which would pay federal employees who work through a shutdown like active-duty military and air traffic controllers.
The deal, according to Bush, "has been evident from the start: a longer CR [continuing resolution] and a compromise on ACA healthcare subsidies. I suspect it will be a short-term extension of the enhanced subsidies (perhaps only one year), specifically wording it to exclude undocumented persons from federal healthcare (Medicaid), with a promise to tackle the broader healthcare issue next year."
Valliere agreed that "there has to be an agreement on health benefits; this issue is toxic for the Republicans. Both sides will talk this out; it’s just a matter of time."
Also, President Donald Trump "has to get involved," Valliere continued. "He voraciously reads the polls and knows that he could overplay his hand by not getting involved."
The midterm elections, Bush added, "will serve as a referendum on how Americans feel about the Trump economy. And when I say economy, I mean the economy of their wallet. Overall affordability will be a key theme in 2026, with healthcare as the specific focus of discussion. POTUS seems interested in finding a healthcare solution."
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