The depletion date for the Social Security Old Age and Survivor Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will come a year earlier, in 2032, due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law on July 4, according to nonpartisan analysis by the Social Security chief actuary, released Tuesday.
"Because the revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits is directed to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, implementation of the OBBBA will have material effects on the financial status" of the Social Security trust funds, according to the analysis, which was requested by Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden, D-Ore.
“Not only did Republicans give massive tax breaks to corporations and the ultra-wealthy, not only did they make the largest cut to American health care in history, but now it is clear Republicans have brought Social Security closer to running out of money,” Wyden said in a statement. “Every day that goes by makes it clear that the Republican agenda is making Americans sicker and poorer.”
The 2025 Social Security Trustees report projected depletion by 2033.
The Office of the Chief Actuary analysis focuses on provisions of the tax and spending law with material effects on Social Security program cost, followed by estimates of the program cost effects of the law.
"Before the OBBBA was signed into law, the marginal tax rates and tax bracket amounts were set as specified" in the 2017 tax law, the analysis states. "Those values were scheduled to revert to pre-TCJA levels in 2026. However, implementation of the OBBBA makes permanent the rates and bracket amounts specified in the TCJA."
The OBBBA "also increases the standard deduction amounts for those age 65 and older for years 2025 through 2028 and includes other tax changes with relatively smaller effects on Social Security beneficiaries," the chief actuary explains. "The combined net effect of these income tax provisions results in less overall tax liability for Social Security beneficiaries. In turn, the trust funds will receive lower levels of projected revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits for all years beginning in 2025."
The chief actuary estimates that implementation of the OBBBA "will result in net increased program cost starting in 2025. Over calendar years 2025 through 2034, the total net increase in OASDI program cost is estimated to be $168.6 billion."
In addition, the analysis continues, "the timing of combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserve depletion is accelerated from the third quarter of 2034 under the 2025 Trustees Report baseline to the first quarter of 2034 following implementation of the law. Considered alone, the reserve depletion date for the OASI Trust Fund is accelerated from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032."
Further, "over the long-range projection period, implementation of the OBBBA will decrease (worsen) the 75-year OASDI actuarial balance by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll, from -3.82 percent under the 2025 Trustees Report baseline to -3.98 percent following implementation of the law."
The net effect of the changes in the law "will decrease annual balances for the OASDI program from 2025 through the end of the 75-year projection period, decreasing the annual balance for the 75th projection year (2099) by 0.17 percent of taxable payroll," the analysis states.
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