The last two weeks have “felt like a casino rather than an investment market,” Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CEO and chief investment officer, said Wednesday as he provided an analysis on the first quarter and thoughts on where markets and the economy are headed.
Doll also checked in on his 10 predictions for 2025, saying they feel a bit “like ancient history.”
In early January, Crossmark, a faith-based investing firm, took a cautious view for the year, given economic uncertainty, potential tariffs and high valuations, he noted on the webcast. The firm remains cautious, albeit a little less so, he said.
The firm put recession odds at 25% early this year, then boosted its estimate to 35% on tariff news and to 50% last week, but President Donald Trump’s announcement Wednesday that he would pause sweeping new tariffs — sparking a temporary reversal in the massive selloff earlier in the week — likely lowered the recession risk to about 25%, Doll said.
“This is an uncertain world, more uncertain than usual,” the Crossmark leader said, noting the firm’s predictions are “best guesses.”
The stock market is unlikely to record a new high anytime soon, according to Doll. Crossmark sees a 50% probability that the S&P 500 will end this year at 4,850, down nearly 10% from its current level.
“Even with the decline, stocks have not gotten cheap. They’re more reasonable, obviously, with the decline, but we’ve got to mark earnings to market and that’s going to cause, I think, some concerns and prevent us from going back up to new high,” he said on the webcast, after the big market rally Wednesday.
So-called "waterfall" declines like the market experienced recently usually are followed by a rally, then another, less vigorous drop, he noted on the webcast and accompanying slides.
Even before the Trump tariffs, growth expectations coming into 2025 were too high, Doll said. The firm expects S&P 500 returns to be subpar for the next five to 10 years, in the mid-single digits.
Doll suggested investors include some international stocks in their portfolio but to wait for a relative pullback before getting aggressive because they have outperformed the U.S. significantly in the last six months.
He also said Crossmark is seriously looking at adding ETFs.
Doll also discussed his 10 predictions for 2025, which the firm formally released Monday, noting that five were heading in the right direction while it was too early or too close to call for the other five. Here’s Doll’s check-in on his predictions for the year.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.