The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 will be a 2.3% increase in benefits, 0.1 percentage points higher than last month, The Senior Citizens League predicted Thursday.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers fell 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. Over the last 12 months, the index rose 2.4% before seasonal adjustment, slowing from 2.8% growth in February. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1% in March.
The COLA projection and inflation report come eight days after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs and a day after he agreed to pause many of the "reciprocal" levies for 90 days.
"Many economists predict that tariffs would drive increased inflation," the League said Thursday in a statement. "While this would increase the COLA, it would also put seniors under financial pressure as prices rise — like we’ve already seen with essentials like eggs."
The advocacy group called on Trump "to provide exemptions on critical products for seniors," adding that "if the administration does unpause the tariffs, exceptions for drugs, medical equipment, and essential food items could soften the blow" for retirees.
One key indicator for the league's COLA prediction is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W), which the Social Security Administration uses to calculate the COLA, which is announced each year in October.
Along with most economists, "TSCL expects the new tariffs to lead to higher inflation," Benton said. "Our COLA model will likely reflect that in coming months as the CPI-W and other economic indicators respond to the new import tax policies.”
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.