The Senior Citizens League has used February’s inflation numbers to generate its latest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) estimate for 2026, and it is now projecting a 2.2% increase in benefits.
Last month, the group projected a 2.3% increase in benefits, which was up from the original 2.1% 2026 COLA projection offered in January. The new drop in the COLA projection comes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced inflation decreased to 2.7% for February from 3.0% the prior month.
TSCL’s most recent prediction is 0.3 percentage points higher than the 2025 COLA of 2.5%.
The actual 2026 COLA won’t be known until October, at which time the Social Security Administration will use the average rate of inflation during the third quarter to compare how prices have changed compared with the third quarter of 2024.
February Inflation Highlights
The index for shelter rose 0.3% in February, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all-items increase. The shelter increase was partially offset, however, by a 4% decrease in the index for airline fares and a 1% decline in the index for gasoline.
Despite the decrease in the gasoline index, the energy index rose 0.2% over the month as the indexes for electricity and natural gas increased. The index for food also increased in February, rising 0.2% as the index for food away from home increased 0.4%. The food at home index was unchanged over the month.
Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel and personal care. The indexes for airline fares and new vehicles were among the few major indexes that decreased in February.
Social Security Overpayments
In other recent Social Security news, the Trump administration announced a new policy this week to ratchet up SSA’s efforts to collect overpaid Social Security benefits. Starting on March 27, seniors receiving accidental overpayments will have 100% of their future benefits withheld until they’ve paid back the excess amount.
This rule, which reverses a Biden-era policy that withheld the greater of 10% or $10, will only take effect on overpayments that occur after March 27. According to its Agency Financial Reports, the SSA collected an average of $4.2 billion in overpayments per year from fiscal years 2017 to 2023.
Credit: David Palmer/ALM
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