The Senior Citizens League has used January’s inflation numbers to generate its second Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) estimate for 2026, and it is now projecting a 2.3% increase in benefits.
This is up from the original 2.1% 2026 COLA projection, thanks to an uptick in inflation measured for January.
The actual 2026 COLA won’t be known until October, at which time the Social Security Administration will use the average rate of inflation during the third quarter to compare how prices have changed compared with the third quarter of 2024.
For 2025, the COLA was 2.5%.
As noted by The Senior Citizens League, inflation came in at 3.0% in January 2025. If this number remains elevated, the COLA prediction will naturally rise over time, whereas a cooling in inflation would bring the projection back toward the initial 2.1% figure.
January Inflation Highlights
The index for shelter rose 0.4% in January, accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly all items increase. The energy index rose 1.1% over the month, as the gasoline index increased 1.8%.
The index for food also increased in January, rising 0.4% as the index for food at home rose 0.5% and the index for food away from home increased 0.2%. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% for the month.
Indexes that increased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, recreation, used cars and trucks, medical care, communication, and airline fares. The indexes for apparel, personal care, and household furnishings and operations were among the few major indexes that decreased in January.
Credit: David Palmer/ALM
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