In 2023, both homebuyers and home sellers largely sat on the sidelines against a backdrop of high interest rates, historically low inventory and listing prices that continued to grow, albeit slowly. Realtor.com forecasts that this year will continue to be challenging, although it sees a reprieve in price growth and mortgage rates, which should lead to some improved affordability. Heading into 2024, first-time homebuyers are feeling optimistic. In a survey conducted by Realtor.com and Censuswide in October, 61% of hopeful buyers said 2024 would be a good time to buy. Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist, noted that although affordability will continue to be an issue in 2024, the survey showed that nearly all prospective first-time homebuyers feel they will be able to afford a home within their lifetime, and 40% said they would be able to afford one within the next year. A new study by Realtor.com indicates that first-time buyers may have their best luck in some unexpected places: a collection of small to midsize towns and cities where affordability meets healthy inventory, culture and liveliness, lower-than-average commute times, forecasted price growth, and good company of similar-aged peers. Realtor.com's list of the best markets for first-time homebuyers factored in growth expectations for each market's surrounding metro area. The study comprised 2,738 cities and places with a population of more than 5,000 that are located within the 100 largest metro areas. Researchers based their rankings on these criteria:
- Share of 25- to 34-year-old homeowner households among all households — U.S. average 5.4%
- Availability of homes for sale, measured by active listings per 1,000 existing households in the past 12 months through November — U.S. average 38.6
- Affordability, estimated by the ratio of listing prices to gross household incomes of 25- to 34-year-olds in that city for the past 12 months through November — U.S. average $382,230
- Average commute time to work — U.S. average 29 minutes
- Forecasted metro home sales and home price growth in 2024, as new buyers may want to ensure they locate to a healthy market — U.S. averages -1.7% and 0.1%
- An area's culture and liveliness, estimated by the count of eating, drinking and shopping establishments, and other lifestyle businesses as listed on Yelp in November
- Job opportunities, estimated by the forecasted unemployment rate of the city's surrounding metro area
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