China: Short-Term Gamble, Long-Term Necessary Investment

“We need to look at the interplay of investment and consumption,” Rohr said. “Looking back historically at these episodes of economic rebalancing, you find some profound linkages between the two, such that when investment growth decelerates … you see a deceleration in consumption growth … accompanied by asset price inflation.” He said that in next five to 10 years Morningstar sees “significant slowing, weakness and deceleration on the consumption side,” and projected 5% growth in gross domestic product.

Ahern opined that “GDP is so overemphasized,” and though the country itself is “fascinated” by GDP, the number doesn’t matter because “China’s base is so large. So if China grows 5% this year, the size of the growth is three times larger than the Singapore GDP … Even when it is growing slowly, it is the second largest economy in the world.”

Deutsche sees 6% GDP growth now, but 5% going forward, Kittsley noted. But he added that so much else is happening in China — changing from an agricultural to urban society, and a mass move to the middle class — that opportunities abound.

But Rohr wasn’t convinced saying “digging into the underlying numbers makes me more worried,” adding that he had “little faith” in those strong retail sales numbers noted by Ahern earlier. He said Morningstar looked at “harder to fudge” numbers like value-added tax receipts, which were growing at 2%-3%; large durable goods like vehicle and appliance sales, both which were sharply decelerating; and even smaller goods, like instant noodles and cigarette sales, which were down as well. 

“Yes, there may be pockets, like Apple and Nike [that are strong], but what you’re seeing with Chinese consumers is a more meaningful deceleration than observed in headline retail sales figures,” he said.

Kittsley still believes China is the place to be, and that A-shares and Red Chips — companies based on the mainland but listed in Hong Kong — would be a good start, but there are “levels of granularity,” he said.

Ahern noted that the 5^th  Plenaria meeting, in which the Chinese government will work out its five-year plan, is coming in November. “China is so transparent when they put out this five-year plan,” he said. “They are saying, this is what we care about for the next five years, and I want to buy what the Chinese government is going to drive policy toward.”

Rohr agreed that China was a long-term investment because it would be tapping into a large Asian economy that will grow. However, he cautioned, “Short-term investments would be like allocating a portion of your portfolio to a Blackjack table; the result is it has absolutely no tie to economic fundamentals. And it’s a casino that may decide you don’t get to take your winnings home…Great opportunity long term, but short term? Yikes!”