Beware of Data Mining: Market Lessons From the Election
If a gold mine is a hole with a liar standing on top, a successful data miner is a quant with data lying to himself.
Last Best Chance for Fixing Roads and Refinancing Debt
I suggest that the U.S. issue bonds that mature in 50 or 100 years, and given Washington gridlock, something positive may result.
Everyone Knew Trump Would Win All Along
As an example of hindsight bias and how outcomes affect narratives, consider the presidential election.
This Bull Market Has Room to Run
Are we in a cyclical bull market coming to an end or in the early years of a secular bull market? The answer could have a significant impact on the way portfolios perform.
We're More Productive Than We Think
The way we measure productivity today, which captured the output of the economy in the last century, isn't up to the task in this century.
The 10 Things We Fear in Markets
Just one example: If you allow your politics to interfere with your investing, you are likely to be disappointed by both.
Kansas Ends Bad Economic News by Not Reporting It
The Kansas governor canceled a report meant to measure the economic growth results of his likely failed tax cutting strategy.
So Many Hedge Funds, So Little Alpha
The good news? Alpha can be produced on a consistent basis by some exceptional people. The bad news? They won’t manage any of your money.
Bullish News From Wall Street’s Bearish Seers
There are a few facts that might undercut analysts’ collective fears and allow us to climb the wall of worry for stocks.
Harvard Does a Trade You Should Never Make
It looks like Harvard Management Co. may have sacrificed billions of dollars in investment returns by hiring less-capable asset managers.