Birinyi’s right when so many others are wrong. Money manager Laszlo Birinyi correctly predicted the 11% pullback by the S&P 500 in the fall, and he now predicts a bullish trend will continue in 2012.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Jan. 4, Birinyi said equities will gain at least 8% “as improving corporate profits force bears to capitulate”.
Forecasts for declines from economist and AdvisorOne contributor Gary Shilling as well as Nouriel Roubini were “repudiated in 2011 as the benchmark gauge for American equities erased a 13% drop,” according to the news service.
“Birinyi, who advised holding stocks in August as the U.S. government was stripped of its triple-A credit rating and strategists cut forecasts faster than any time since the credit crisis, said shares will climb for years to come if history is any guide. Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., predicts equity investors will lose money in 2012 as consumer spending drops,” the story reports.
“Many concerns are opinions, but not necessarily facts,” Birinyi added. “Later in the year, things will get a little bit better and sentiment will change, and we end up at the last leg where we’ve got the last-guy-in-the-pool scenario.”
As Bloomberg notes, the S&P 500 has risen 89% since March 2009, returning 28% a year to investors including dividends as U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an average rate of 2.4% over nine quarters.