Energy and agriculture will fuel a “multi-speed recovery,” causing a 17% increase in the S&P 500 in 2011, according to Cambiar Investors’ Brian Barish. The prediction puts Barish in agreement with other high profile money managers, most notably Ken Fisher, who believes the broad market will rally by 17.5% in the next 12 months.
Barish, president of Cambiar, a Denver-based money management firm—which oversees $5.7 billion in assets—told Bloomberg, “The bleeding has stopped. The market multiple is very low on earnings, and it doesn’t seem that big a stretch to me to see that multiple expand.”
The S&P 500 has risen 75% since its low in March 2009 to Thursday's closing level of 1,180.55 as confidence in earnings and the U.S. economy has risen. The S&P 500 will rise to 1,300 by June 30 and 1,380 by the end of next year, based on the weighted average of estimates by Cambiar’s nine analysts.
According to the news service, he said stocks will perform better than would be expected under the “new normal” theory of the economy championed by Pacific Investment Management Co., owner of the world’s biggest bond fund, which says growth will be relatively slow in coming years.
PIMCO, based in Newport Beach, Calif., used the phrase "new normal" last year, forecasting an extended period of lower-than-average economic growth. Bond and equity strategists, bankers and economists adopted the term as concerns grew about Europe's debt crisis and the strength of the global recovery.