October 8, 2009

Inflation May be Inevitable...

Among the factors for determining future allocation decisions is the most likely direction for inflation. We have noticed a number of investment firms launching new funds to profit from the inevitable return of high prices. Many of these product managers assume that increasing demand and dwindling supply of crude oil and industrial metals will result in pricier finished goods, and that consumers will eventually adjust to such conditions, as they did in the 1970s.

In our view, these new products are coming far too early. The U.S. economy has more immediate issues to deal with. Although housing prices have begun to rebound, a large inventory of foreclosures will likely swamp the market in the fourth quarter. Apartment vacancy rates have risen, resulting in net effective rents falling about 3%. These two metrics make up about 30% of the consumer price index, a key gauge for inflation.

Consumer confidence is also suffering, mainly due to concerns about job security. Historical spending patterns are not likely to return soon, as families are saving more money for an uncertain future.

Even in this backdrop, we see significant pockets of opportunity in the markets. The corporate fixed-income market remains attractive, with yields that approach the long-run return of stocks. International bonds offer tempting yields as well, with the additional benefit of foreign currency exposure. And both foreign and domestic large-cap equities are still modestly attractive, even considering the large run-up in prices seen since the March's lows.

Ben Warwick (ben@qesinvest.com) is chief investment officer of Quantitative Equity Strategies LLC in Denver, and Memphis-based Sovereign Wealth Management, Inc.

See more of Ben Warwick's Portfolio Diagnostician Blog Posts

Inflation Paradox
September 30, 2009
A little inflation is a good thing, because it shows that there is decent demand for products, and an economy that's nicely "humming along." Runaway inflation is not a good thing, however.

Tandem Performance Puzzle
September 25, 2009
Typically, stocks and bonds go in opposite directions, a tendency that has exhibited itself throughout most of 2009. But in the last four weeks, long-dated Treasuries have risen right alongside equities, as the pair has each notched a 6% gain.

The State of the Consumer
September 22, 2009
There's some obvious trepidation out there among buyers, who would rather save than spend. But instead of money-market accounts (and their zero yields), it seems that most folks prefer to stash their savings in the stock and bond markets.

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